Apple turned 20 in April, but don't feel bad if you didn't get an invite to the party. Posting a $740 million loss has a way of deflating any birthday balloons. The company has instead decided to defer its celebration to another time -- perhaps early 1997 -- when it can face the future with a bit more optimism. By then, it'll be close to Apple's 21st birthday -- an age associated with entering adulthood and leaving childish games behind.
Once again, Apple finds itself at a crossroads. Clearly, the company has to reinvent itself. Everything we've seen thus far from Apple's new chief, Dr. Gilbert Amelio, indicates that the Apple we'll see at that birthday bash won't be the same company we're wringing our hands over now. But what will it be? More important, how will it change the Mac? I've gotten some indications from people within Apple, and Amelio's plans are coming into focus, but the way I see it, the company can take the Mac in one of four directions:
The Computer for the Rest of Us.
OK, so there's nothing new about this one, but many loyal Apple customers still cling tenaciously to an ideal that began as a marketing gimmick. It's the strategy that got Apple where it is today, reeling from massive losses and gasping for market share. Let's face it: The Mac is no longer the Computer for the Rest of Us -- that computer, wherever it might be, is running Windows and Microsoft Office.
When this slogan was first trotted out, the Mac had a distinctive look and feel, a certain power and elegance that distinguished the Macintosh from its PC rivals. But the playing field has leveled. Is there anything worth saving in this scenario? Yep. If Apple can get back to basics and simplify its product line (even Apple insiders are hard-pressed to tell you which Mac models have which features), then the company may still be a player in the low end, especially the home and small-business markets.
The Computer for the Few of Us.
This statement may appear to be a sad commentary on Apple's market share, but think of it as a lifestyle mantra. Sure, it smacks of elitism, but so what? The Mac has never really been a computer for the masses. Apple could embrace the Mac's snob appeal by creating sleek, slick machines that, much like luxury cars, make a statement about their owners. It's the Ultimate Computing Machine.
Instead of continuing to go through traditional computer-reseller channels, Apple could sell these Macs through executive-toy catalogs such as the one from The Sharper Image or at posh retail outlets such as New York's Museum of Modern Art Design Store (an Apple Classic is already in its permanent collection).
Apple's already working on machines like these, but will they ever see the light of day? I hope so, if only to reconfirm the coolness factor of the Mac. On the other hand, unless there's lots of power under the hood, machines such as these only reinforce the notion that the Mac is a toy rather than a business tool.
The Computer for Some of Us.
In this scenario, Apple builds on its current successes: graphics, publishing, multimedia, and so on. Think Niche Knack. The Wintel juggernaut hasn't been very successful in these markets. As a result, Apple has a pretty clear shot, but this is no time to be sanguine -- the gap is narrowing. In the multimedia arena, Apple needs to edge out Silicon Graphics in the competition for Hollywood big bucks. QuickTime has been a big hit, and with innovations such as the new QuickTime plug-in for Netscape Navigator (http://quicktime.apple.com), Apple continues to build on that success. If Apple licenses Windows NT to run on its servers, the Macintosh will further solidify its dominant position as a front end for print publishers. And in the field of education, Apple should take seriously the old SNL parody of another of its slogans -- the Power to Crush the Other Kids.
Apple would be foolish to neglect these markets, but right now I think some people at Apple already take them for granted. In the comments he's made thus far, Amelio often neglects to mention publishing and education. I hope that's corrected -- and soon.
The Computer for All of Us.
This is the scenario with the most currency. Amelio has publicly remarked that Apple's future lies in an "Internet-based computing architecture" that's well suited to propelling us into the Information Age. The Internet is the solution that conceivably embraces the other three scenarios -- low-end or high-end.
The interesting thing about the Internet scenario is that the computer platform isn't much of a factor, according to Amelio. In this age of online information, it doesn't matter which machine you use to get onto the Internet: It's the experience you have once you're there. This strategy resonates with Apple's past. Twelve years ago, Apple employed a similar approach by offering an alternative to working with text-based command-line computers.
Apple's got the basic elements it needs in order to succeed, but the strategy needs to be clearly formulated and communicated. With the Internet, I think Apple's found the right medium for a turnaround. Look for that party invitation to arrive on the Net.
